
It
is good to be able to speak with you. It is over 25 years
since I last spoke at the IUSY conference here in Malmo.
It will probably be another 25 years before I am invited
again.I
believe the WTO and other global institutions should be
made accountable to their owners, the people, through
governments, parliaments and congresses. That is why in
October I shall be speaking at the Liberal International
Conference which meets in Canada. That is why I keep in
touch with the Democratic Union and Socialist
International. That is why each time I visit a country I
try to meet with, and appear before, parliamentary select
committees, Greens, Conservatives or whomever.
A
major challenge for political forces is to scrutinise the
global institutions that function in their name. Some
very heavy lifting and thinking is required that goes
beyond the traditional banner slogans, car stickers,
television sound bites and radio grabs.
Healthy,
democratic and accountable international agencies are now
as important as democracy at home. The international
architecture is much talked about. Now we need some
leadership and direction, especially given the end of the
cold war. You are capable of this fresh thinking.
You
are very lucky to be young today. Fifty years ago, when I
was born, the future did not look as bright. Rationing
was commonplace. Memories of the Great Depression were
still fresh. The world was struggling to recover from the
devastation and horrors of the War. And the spectre of
nuclear conflict between the United States and the Soviet
Union loomed over us. Science's final solution was the
great cloud that hovered over all decision-making.
Nowadays,
the Cold War is a rapidly fading memory. World War II is
something that affected your grandparents or even your
great-grandparents, when films were still in black and
white. The Great Depression seems even more distant, from
the age when films were silent. As for rationing, well
now we have dieting instead.
Undeniably,
we in the West are lucky. The peace and prosperity we
enjoy is unprecedented. We must cherish them. But we also
made a lot of our luck. Were it not for far-sighted
policymakers we would live in a very different world
today.
My
parents, having suffered the great depression and the
collapse of the trading system, made deeper and more
lethal because of tariff hikes in major markets, then
suffered a world war. Those two events were connected.
Great men, liberal and progressive leaders like
Roosevelt, Lord Keynes and others erected a new system of
global structures, including:
- the
United Nations; to handle political matters
- the
World Bank; to manage development
- the
International Monetary Fund; to manage global
economic policy
- the
International Trade Organization; to manage trade
(which became the GATT and then the WTO)
Embodied
in the Marshall Plan, the most generous idea by victors
in war ever, this was the mirror opposite of the
spiteful, short-term thinking of 1918 and Versailles.
What a different and more dangerous world it would have
been without this visionary political leadership.
We
all can learn and benefit from decisions taken many years
ago. If you are to remain successful, and if those who
are less fortunate are also to share in your success,
then you would do well to heed the lessons of the past
fifty years.
We
on the Left have a lot to be proud of. We built the
Welfare State that looks after people when they are sick,
poor, or old. We fought for the equality of women and of
minorities. We argued passionately for internationalism,
for solidarity between workers in Sweden and those in
Africa.
So
it is odd that some in the Left have sometimes opposed
free trade. If international solidarity means anything,
surely it means helping people around the world who are
less fortunate than us. And surely that means buying
coffee from a Ugandan grower and T-shirts made in
Bangladesh as well as demonstrating against apartheid.
The contradiction of the Left is that in church on Sunday
we give generously to flood victims in Bangladesh. Then
on Monday we petition the government to stop the
Bangladeshis selling their garments in our country.
I
think the most important lesson of the past 50 years is
that we must embrace the outside world, not shun it.
Openness is good. Just compare the protectionist
nightmare of the 1930s with the long boom in America and
Europe in the 1950s and 1960s as trade barriers fell.
But
the benefits of openness are not only economic. Whatever
its flaws, no one seriously doubts that Europe is better
off with the European Union than without it. There are
two Europes. One is united and integrated, where people
enjoy each others food, culture and commerce. This Europe
is a powerful force for good in the world where living
standards, human rights and environmental sensitivity are
on the rise. Then there is the other Europe where
tribalism and economic nationalism brings fear, terror
and lower living standards. This is the extreme in the
Balkans. Openness is the surest way to overcome
tribalism.
Open
societies share their ideas and their culture. I love my
country, but I see no reason why I shouldn't also enjoy
the best that other countries have to offer. It is great
that Swedes eat Chinese food, watch American films, and
read Latin American books. It is heartening that you
celebrated when apartheid fell in South Africa and were
horrified when people were butchered in Rwanda. Opening
up, which is basically what that ugly world
globalisation means, is in keeping with the
internationalism that the Left has always championed. All
this does not make France less French or Scotland less
Scottish.
Openness
does bring with it new challenges. Our lives are more
closely linked with those of others across the globe.
When Russia defaulted in 1998, the financial aftershocks
meant Mexican homeowners had to pay higher mortgage
rates. When South Korea's economy seized up, workers in
Korean factories in Britain lost their jobs. Undeniably,
this causes pain. But people tend to forget that, thanks
to globalisation, good times in the rest of the world
spill over to us too. America's free-spending consumers
prevented a world recession in 1998 and have helped Asia
to recover quickly. More generally, exports can keep an
economy going when domestic demand flags, while imports
can prevent it from overheating when domestic demand is
strong.
The
World Trade Organisation, and its predecessor the GATT,
has played an important role in creating this more open
and prosperous world. Since the GATT was set up in 1948,
world trade has soared 15-fold, to more than $7,000
billion a year. This has helped to multiply world output
by seven. This huge rise in living standards has allowed
nearly everyone to enjoy the luxuries that were
previously enjoyed only by the few. European tours were
once the preserve of the wealthy and the aristocrats. Now
almost everyone in the EU can enjoy a foreign holiday.
Even in poor countries, people live longer, eat better,
and have more access to clean water than they did 50
years ago.
Of
course, the world today is far from perfect. Disease is
still rampant. Bloody wars still kill and maim. Far too
many people are still poor. 2.8 billion people live on
less than 2 dollars a day, barely enough for a Big Mac.
Such
extreme poverty is a tragedy and an outrage. But how can
it be reduced? The simple answer is that developing
economies need to grow faster, and the poor need to share
more in the fruits of economic growth. But that merely
begs more questions how do governments boost
economic growth?; how do they make sure it benefits
everyone? to which there are no simple solutions.
Cancelling Third World debt, for instance, will do little
to improve the lives of the poor if governments squander
their resources. When 25% of the population have AIDS,
then trade is just a small but important part of
progress. Nor will abolishing trade barriers help much if
countries are at war and farmers cannot get their crops
to market. Even so, at least one thing is clear: trade
alone may not be enough to eradicate poverty, but it is
essential if poor people are to have any hope of a
brighter future.
Some
people scoff at the argument that trade helps the poor.
They claim that trade benefits the rich at the expense of
the poor. But the evidence tells a different story. It is
well-established that trade boosts economic growth. A
much-quoted paper by Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner of
Harvard University found that developing countries with
open economies grew by 4.5% a year in the 1970s and
1980s, while those with closed economies grew by 0.7% a
year. Countless country studies support their results.
Opponents
of free trade retort that poor countries are still not
catching up with rich ones, indeed that the rich are
drawing further ahead. It is true that poor countries in
general are not catching up with rich ones. Yet it is
obvious that some developing countries are. Just look at
South Korea. Thirty years ago, it was as poor as Ghana.
Now, thanks to trade-led growth, it is as rich as
Portugal and think how much richer Portugal has
become over the past thirty years thanks to the European
Union. Or consider China, where 150 million people have
escaped from extreme poverty over the past decade. What
do these fortunate countries have in common? Openness to
trade. A WTO study on trade and poverty published last
month found that the poor countries that are catching up
with rich ones are those that are open to trade; and the
more open they are, the faster they are converging.
Even
so, critics of free trade argue that poor people within a
country lose out when it liberalises. Not so. The new WTO
study finds that the poor tend to benefit from the faster
economic growth that trade liberalisation brings. It
concludes that trade liberalisation is generally a
strongly positive contributor to poverty
alleviationit allows people to exploit their
productive potential, assists economic growth, curtails
arbitrary policy interventions and helps to insulate
against shocks. This concurs with the finding of a
new study by David Dollar and Aart Kray of the World Bank
which, using data from 80 countries over four decades,
confirms that openness boosts economic growth and that
the incomes of the poor rise one-for-one with overall
growth.
Of
course, some people do lose in the short run from trade
liberalisation. Some are fat cats grown rich from cosy
deals with governments. But others are poor farmers who
lose their subsidies or unskilled workers who lose their
jobs. Their plight should not be forgotten. But the right
way to alleviate the hardship of the unlucky few is
through social safety nets and job retraining rather than
by abandoning reforms that benefit the many.
I
see no contradiction between being on the Left and
supporting free trade and the WTO. I am, and always will
be, a Labour man. But how does making food and clothing
from abroad more expensive help working people? How does
raising the price of cars so that only the rich can
afford them help working people? And how does protecting
the jobs of yesterday at the expense of the jobs of
tomorrow help working people? It doesn't. It doesn't. It
doesn't.
The
information age is providing opportunities in education,
health care, entertainment, enjoyment and employment
never before dreamed of. On lonely atolls and distant
villages, one can enjoy Pavarotti, get weather reports
and teach one's children. Contrast when I was a
child the hope of every working class family was a set of
the Encyclopaedia Britannica. In those days it cost a
year's pay. Now, its free on the internet or you can buy
the CD with a week's social security. How many of you
have e-mailed home or used a cellphone over the course of
this meeting?
Free
trade is generally a good thing. And so is the WTO. We
are too often misunderstood, sometimes genuinely, often
wilfully. We are not a world government in any shape or
form. People do not want a world government, and we do
not aspire to be one. But people do want global rules to
match the acceleration of globalisation. If the WTO did
not exist, people would be crying out for a forum where
governments could negotiate rules, ratified by national
parliaments, that promote freer trade and provide a
transparent and predictable framework for business. And
they would be crying out for a mechanism that helps
governments avoid coming to blows over trade disputes.
That is what the WTO is. We do not lay down the law. We
uphold the rule of law. The alternative is the law of the
jungle, where might makes right and the little guy
doesn't get a look in.
The
best friends of the WTO are those who are not members.
This year Georgia, Jordan, Albania and Croatia have
joined the WTO. The Albanian President said to me that
those who oppose economic integration and support
isolation should visit Albania. Later this year we hope
to have China, Chinese Taipei, Oman and Lithuania as new
members. The Baltic states had living standards equal to
Denmark before the Soviets closed them up. Czechoslovakia
had a living standard comparable with France before the
war. And at the turn of the century, Chile, Argentina and
Uruguay had higher living standards than New Zealand,
Australia and Canada. Then they turned inwards and
downwards.
Of
course, we need to put our case better. We also have to
listen to our critics more. They are not always wrong.
And we are trying to make the WTO's work even more
accessible to everywhere. We welcome public scrutiny.
That is why I make a point of meeting with parliamentary
committees whenever I visit a country. Just yesterday I
did so in Stockholm. And that's one of the reasons I'm
here today.
Thank
you.
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