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Discursos:
Mike Moore
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I
am delighted to be here today to deliver the 14th
Paul-Henri Spaak Lecture, and to honour the memory
of a great European visionary and statesman. Spaak
devoted his life to the cause of international
cooperation, making his greatest contribution at a time
when leaders the world over sought to redefine the global
order, following the most generalized armed conflict in
human history. It is entirely consistent that
Paul-Henri Spaak was both a committed pan-European
and an Atlanticist - these were interlocking pieces of
the same jigsaw. In just the same way today, in our
extraordinarily interdependent world, I do not think we
can talk of international cooperation without taking a
global view. It is for this reason that I should like to
focus upon international cooperation in the broadest
sense, and I am sure you will not be surprised that my
emphasis will be upon the fundamental importance of the
multilateral trading system to international growth and
stability. I want to give you the sense of a system which
is continually in evolution, just like the world economy
it underpins. Let me start where Spaak started, in the
struggle to rebuild a better world after 1945. I hope to
show you as we move on, that the challenges and the
opportunities we face today are somewhat comparable to
those which confronted the founding fathers of our
system. Their vision is something we need urgently to
recapture. With
the lessons of destructive nationalism and inward-looking
economic policy fresh in the mind, post-war international
trade arrangements were designed to draw all nations into
a mutual economic interdependence which would help
safeguard peace and security. Trade was to play a central
role in cementing relations among nations, in
underwriting international harmony. From its largely
American-inspired beginnings and trans-Atlantic
orientation, the GATT trading system has made a vital
contribution to peace and prosperity over the last half
century, on an ever-expanding global stage.
The
foundations of the system were rooted strongly in the
principle of non-discrimination and emphasised a solid
rule-based contractual relationship among members. These
two elements were the source of GATT's success. It is a
success which is reflected in a 13-fold increase in
international trade since 1950. More and more, economic
opportunities rely on international exchange. In the
United States, for example, exports amounted to only
five per cent of national income in 1960; by
the early 1990s, the share of exports in GDP had more
than doubled. Unfortunately, we lack good statistics on
international services trade, but we do know that trade
in services is expanding even faster than trade in goods,
and now represents some 20 per cent of
international trade flows.
As
trade grows in importance, so does its contribution to
the creation and the maintenance of jobs. In the United
States alone, over 7 million jobs are supported by
merchandise exports. Around one-third of all jobs created
in the United States over the last 10 years or so
are due to increased merchandise exports, and practically
all new manufacturing jobs emanate from export activity.
If we had figures for services, these numbers would be
even more impressive.
Furthermore,
international investment flows have also grown
dramatically in the last few years. Foreign direct
investment inflows to all countries averaged
US$50 billion per year during the first half of the
1980s, and have risen to US$194 billion by 1993.
There was a time when international business tended to
see trade and investment as alternative means of securing
access to foreign markets. Today, firms need to be able
both to invest and to trade on a global scale - and for
this they depend upon open, predictable trade and
investment regimes.
The
GATT presided over eight rounds of multilateral trade
negotiations. In doing so, it gradually eroded tariffs,
bringing them down to an average of less than
4 per cent today, one-tenth of what they were
in the immediate post-war period. As tariffs have been
reduced, other trade-restricting measures have become
more obvious. In later rounds of GATT negotiations,
emphasis shifted towards non-tariff trade barriers,
generating an increasingly comprehensive and complex set
of rights and obligations. At the same time, negotiators
have ventured into new areas of policy, outside those
relating purely to trade in goods, thus seeking to ensure
that the system is equal to the task of managing
international economic relations in today's world.
The
recently completed Uruguay Round is the clearest example
of how our agenda has expanded to keep up with the times.
The Uruguay Round transformed the GATT into the World
Trade Organization, putting the trading system on
coherent and solid institutional footing. A new,
integrated dispute settlement procedure was created to
guarantee quick, objective and neutral adjudication when
trade disputes arise between governments. The Round also
made significant progress in sectors where protectionist
policies have been most resilient, notably in agriculture
and textiles and stronger disciplines were established on
subsidies, state trading, technical standards and
licensing procedures, to name a few. The Uruguay Round
was the first to address trade in services and
intellectual property rights protection. This continuing
commitment to trade liberalization and enhanced
competition is a key contribution of far-sighted
governments to globalized economic activity.
Globalization,
by which I mean a multiplicity of interlocking economic
relationships among national economies, is a natural
outgrowth of technological advances in communications and
transport. It has also been encouraged by the favourable
environment which the rules and the market access
commitments of the multilateral system provide. Thus,
supportive government policy and modern technology have
induced businesses and entrepreneurs to operate - as most
of them naturally wish - across frontiers in a manner
that would have been very difficult twenty or thirty
years ago. The evidence of global integration is clear in
the way trade growth has outstripped production growth
year after year - each 10 per cent increase in
world production has been associated with a
16 per cent increase in world trade. This trend
is accelerating; last year's increase in world trade was
nearly triple the growth in world production. This rising
ratio of world trade to world output not only shows the
growing interdependence among nations. By drawing
attention to the fact that international trade has
consistently shown greater dynamism than production
throughout the post-war period, it also highlights the
central role of international trade in post-war economic
growth.
There
are those who would like to put the clock back, to wish
away the mutual dependence of nations. But no-one can
stop the course of history. Interdependence has made a
huge contribution to rising incomes and peace among
nations, and it is here to stay - and grow. The challenge
that we face is how to make it work for all nations and
work better.
This
is a formidable challenge, it is true. But recent events
also have presented us with an historical opportunity, a
chance to define something different and durable in
international relations. The long-standing and
predictable political assumptions of the Cold War have
become irrelevant. North-South relations, dominated so
often in the past by unnecessary polarization and a
dialogue of the deaf, have also changed irrevocably.
While the collapse of communism was vividly symbolized by
the tumbling of the Berlin Wall, no such image drew
attention to the changes that have taken place in
relations among developed and developing nations. Yet
these changes will prove just as momentous.
From
the perspective of the multilateral trading system, then,
what does all this mean? We face a dual task. We must
extend the reach of the system geographically to make it
truly global, and we must also ensure that it remains
effective in the face of growing complexity in
international economic relations. You will all be aware
of the continuing debate within the European Union about
choices between geographical broadening of the Union and
the deepening of its substantive provisions. This is a
politically charged debate because broadening and
deepening are often seen as competing alternatives. But
for the multilateral trading system, these are not
alternatives. Precisely because the WTO aspires to be a
truly global and commercially-relevant entity, we must
press ahead simultaneously on both fronts.
As
far as geographical extension is concerned, we face a
number of challenges. First, the dozen or more states
created by the collapse of the Soviet Union have sought,
or soon will be seeking, WTO membership. Russia's
accession process is underway, as are those of several
other Former Soviet Union countries, including the Baltic
States, Ukraine and Armenia. Work on China's relationship
with GATT has been underway for some ten years now.
Bringing China, Russia and other economies in transition
into the WTO as full participants is a key objective for
the coming months and years.
In
the old days, centrally-planned economies such as Poland,
Romania and Hungary were allowed to join the GATT in the
absence of any serious economic reform effort. Special
accession protocols were drawn up. These protocols
recognized that trading opportunities would not be
created by market forces, so they were based on import
expansion commitments while allowing discriminatory
trading arrangements to persist. But the political
expediency and limited economic relevance of those
arrangements have no place in the WTO today. The
transition economies are engaged in dramatic and
difficult economic transformations towards a market-based
system. The terms on which they accede to the WTO must
contribute to the reform process, and must be realistic.
But the sheer size and economic power that some of these
countries represent also makes it important to ensure
that accession terms are fully supportive of the
integrity of the WTO trading system. The coherence of the
system must not be sacrificed in pursuit of universality
- even if universality is the ultimate goal; because a
global trading system which excludes a significant
proportion of the world's people is a contradiction in
terms.
The
other geopolitical revolution in the trading system is
the leap in developing countries' participation. Over the
last decade or so, dozens of developing countries have
shifted towards liberal trade policies and greater
reliance on international competition to generate income
and growth. More than 70 developing countries have
undertaken unilateral liberalization measures during the
last ten years. That process has chipped away the old
North-South divide. Many countries at quite different
levels of income and development have put their faith in
the WTO trading system for continuity, stability, and the
promise of trade opportunities. This does not mean that
the interests and priorities of countries are identical.
While part of the WTO's job is to define commonality of
interest where possible, and foster joint action,
countries cannot be coerced; they must be brought along
through a recognition of their own interest. Hence, as
the WTO becomes a more inclusive and encompassing
institution, it must accommodate a wider range of
interests. This might be more difficult than in an older
and simpler world dominated by a few like-minded
countries; but we have to succeed, and success will be at
least as rewarding.
However,
as I have said, different developing-country WTO members
have different interests. While many countries continue
to grow and modernize, generating enough wealth to make
their people progressively better off, some low-income
developing countries are clearly not sharing in increased
global prosperity. No society can participate effectively
in the opportunities of a global market if many of its
citizens lack the basic necessities of life. We carry a
shared responsibility to provide the conditions for such
countries to get themselves off the floor. As far as the
trading system is concerned, we must do our utmost to see
that low-income developing countries are able both to
diversify their export production and expand their export
markets on a competitive basis. At the WTO, we are
developing a special programme for Africa, in particular,
which aims to help governments take better advantage of
international trade and foreign investment opportunities.
This is a modest effort, and more must be done,
especially in collaboration with other multilateral
economic institutions.
So
much for the task we face in making the WTO trading
system truly universal in a geographic sense. What about
the deepening of the system? By pressing on with
liberalization, by successfully providing a way forward
in areas of trade where protectionism had long proved
intractable, and by boldly addressing entirely new but
very important aspects of trade, the Uruguay Round made a
signal contribution to international trade relations. It
was a landmark achievement to create the WTO. But
following any birth, the offspring must be nurtured. I
see three major challenges facing our new institution in
the years ahead. The first is to consolidate what we have
done. The second is to give substance to our built-in
negotiating agenda, which essentially constitutes
unfinished business emanating from the Round. The third
is to meet the new challenges already gathering on the
horizon. Allow me to say a little about each of these.
First,
consolidation, or implementation. The sheer range of
subjects that were covered in the Uruguay Round is
daunting for even the hardiest trade hands. The texts of
the results comprise no less than 19 Agreements,
24 Decisions, eight Understandings, and
three Declarations. Some of these texts are
obviously more important than others, but together they
represent nearly 500 pages of carefully crafted
language, replete with commitments. (Perhaps I should not
mention the other 24,000 pages of specific market
access commitments.) For some countries, a number of
these commitments will coincide with existing policies.
In other instances, they call for change. A concerted
effort is required by all WTO members to consolidate the
Uruguay Round results, and ensure full compliance. It is
an open question whether phase-in arrangements for some
of these commitments should be speeded up. For my own
part, I cannot see why the benefits of liberalization in
any country should be delayed one day longer than
absolutely necessary. Even as they are, the commitments
require steady, continuing work in national capitals and
in the WTO on a day-to-day basis. It is activity which
seldom catches the headlines, but it is essential to the
proper functioning of the system.
However,
our biggest, short-term, priority is to make sure the new
dispute settlement system works in a legally and
politically credible manner. When difficulties and
disagreements arise, the WTO's consultation, conciliation
and dispute settlement provisions can be called into
action. A willingness to abide by the dispute settlement
procedures and findings, is just as important as
respecting the rules. With just nine months of experience
under our belts, I think we can be encouraged already by
the operation of the new system. First, governments are
making use of it in a manner which demonstrates
considerable faith in the WTO. Around 20 cases have
come to the Dispute Settlement Body - a number far
greater than in any single year of the GATT's 47-year
existence. Second, the rapid automatic procedure together
with the knowledge that at its conclusion the system is
enforceable seems to be concentrating minds and
encouraging quick settlements through the initial
consultative process - the recent US-Japan dispute on
cars and spare parts is one of these cases. And that is
the objective - to resolve trade disputes quickly, not,
primarily, to generate jurisprudence. Of course, many
disputes will run their full course, and I have no doubt
that we will be able to produce objective, clear,
well-argued judgements which will command the confidence
of governments and legislators everywhere. Nobody need
have any fear of arbitrary conclusions or a lack of
neutrality on the part of WTO dispute panels or the new
Appellate Body.
For
all countries, new and detailed obligations have been
created to notify policies and measures, so that trading
partners can be confident that they have full knowledge
of each others' policies. Transparency is an essential
ingredient for fostering mutual trust and encouraging
respect for the rules. Indeed, one of the results of the
Uruguay Round was the creation of a trade policy review
mechanism, whereby the trade policies of individual WTO
members are examined multilaterally by turn, and in
depth. These examinations provide an opportunity for
countries to hold frank and non-litigious exchanges of
view about each others' policies. They are a valuable
contribution to transparency, and help to raise awareness
among trading partners of policy issues.
In
previous multilateral trade negotiations, unfinished
business tended to reflect failure to agree on quite
fundamental issues, such as whether to do anything about
agriculture, or textiles, or whether to redesign the
rules on safeguard measures. This was hardly the case in
the Uruguay Round. However, by the end of negotiations in
1993, it was clear that extra time would be needed in a
few key sectors. This is clearest in the field of
services, where we have already held post-Uruguay Round
negotiations on trade in financial services and the
movement of natural persons, and are in the midst of
negotiations on the opening up of basic
telecommunications and maritime transport services. We
certainly did not achieve everything we would have liked
in the financial services and natural persons
negotiations, but we made progress. In financial
services, in particular, some thirty countries undertook
valuable, additional market-opening commitments.
The
negotiations on basic telecommunications are to be
completed by the end of April next year. They will open
up significant new trade and investment opportunities.
The negotiations coincide with industry trends towards
liberalization, attributable both to pressure from user
industries and rapid technological development. But there
is nonetheless resistance to the eradication of monopoly
supply arrangements in many countries, and concerted
multilateral action offers the best hope of securing
far-reaching results. Success in these negotiations will
mean that telecom operators should be able to offer a
broad spectrum of competitively priced services, in both
national and international markets. The United States is
in the vanguard of this negotiation, with one of the most
liberal and low-cost telecommunications markets in the
world. This is why its commitment to a genuine
multilateral result is of vital importance. We need a
strong result from the WTO negotiations if we are to make
the vision of the Global Information Society a reality -
with all that it will mean for revitalizing economies,
transforming our societies, and empowering people.
The
negotiations on maritime transport services, on the other
hand, deal with one of the most ancient means of exchange
among peoples, one which retains its fundamental
importance for the flow of merchandise trade. The
prodigious improvements in shipping technology over
recent years need to be matched by improvements in the
policy environment in which these ships sail. This also
is a negotiation where there are some firmly held
positions, and it is essential that we keep on recalling
that it is every bit as valid and important as the
negotiations in other areas.
Another
part of the Uruguay Round's unfinished business is the
built-in agenda for future work. This comprises several
elements. WTO members have already established a mandate
to enter into successive round of negotiations in trade
in services, with a view to achieving progressively
higher levels of liberalization. The first such
negotiation must begin within five years. Similarly, in
agriculture members are committed to engage in
negotiations aimed at further reductions in agricultural
support and protection. The time frame envisaged is the
same as that for services. These commitments and a number
of others in the WTO Agreement clearly reflect
recognition of the need for continual, incremental trade
liberalization - a virtuous circle of global cooperative
efforts that is the basis of an effective multilateral
system.
Then
there is the so-called "new agenda" - those
issues which, as the process of global economic
integration continues, suggest themselves naturally as
likely subjects for the WTO Work Programme of the future.
One
"new" issue that is already in the WTO work
programme is the relationship between trade and the
environment. At the heart of the matter is how we relate
the rules-based multilateral trade system, continued
trade liberalization and further development of the
global economy to environmental concerns and objectives.
It is possible to envisage circumstances in which trade,
unsupported by sound environmental policy, could involve
damage to the environment - or, on the contrary, in which
environmental regulations could harm legitimate trade. In
such circumstances, however, careful judgement is
necessary in weighing whether it is trade policy or
environmental policy which must be adjusted. It is also
not difficult to see how ill-considered international
environmental agreements could needlessly frustrate trade
and reduce incomes - and even put at risk environmental
reform and improvement. At the same time, it is just as
important to recognize the circumstances in which, by
encouraging efficiency and a better allocation of scarce
resources, trade liberalization may be supportive of an
improved environment. I am optimistic that our current
work on the subject in the WTO will contribute to a
better understanding of the issues, and assist
governments in developing more coherent policies in this
area.
Trade
and investment is a leading candidate for the new agenda,
since one of the consequences of globalization is to
lessen the distinctions among different forms of market
access. In the GATT framework, we used to think of market
access simply in terms of tariffs and non-tariff
measures. Reducing tariffs and eliminating other trade
barriers at the frontier was the recipe for
liberalization. Foreign investment was an altogether
different matter. Indeed, countries often used to regard
tariffs and other trade barriers as convenient mechanisms
for inducing foreign investment. Protection of the
domestic market offered attractive profits to foreign
investors. This was the essence of the import
substitution development strategy - a strategy that in
large measure failed and has now been discredited. In
today's world of international business, trade and
investment are increasingly viewed as complements, not
substitutes. Different parts of internationally-based
businesses can be located in several different countries.
Increasingly, businesses trade to invest, and invest to
trade. The WTO cannot afford to concern itself only with
the trade side of the equation - that would be to deny
the reality of modern global business practices.
It
is no coincidence that foreign direct investment flows
worldwide quadrupled, to almost US$200 billion per
annum, in the ten years to 1993. Indeed, the importance
of investment was recognized in the General Agreement on
Trade in Services negotiated in the Uruguay Round, where
investment, or commercial presence, was one of the four
modes of service supply in respect of which WTO members
undertook market access commitments. But I think we need
a broader, or more horizontal approach to international
investment rules. Such rules would build on the WTO
principles of non-discrimination and national treatment,
and create a policy environment to encourage and
safeguard foreign investment, whether in goods or
services. The OECD has already started work in this
direction, but I believe governments will increasingly
recognize the need for work on investment in a more
global setting as well. Especially so since developing
countries are not only the target of a growing proportion
of international investment but are themselves becoming
important overseas investors. I should note that the
Uruguay Round Agreement on Trade-Related Investment
Measures calls for an examination by members within five
years of the case for developing provisions on investment
policy.
That
same mandate refers to competition policy, which we will
also have to examine as a possible candidate for further
work. Of course, what we have done in the GATT and the
WTO over 50 years in promoting a liberal trading
environment is precisely the enhancement of competition.
But if we have succeeded in getting the rules of
competition between countries to work effectively, that
very success requires us to go further and consider how
the behaviour of companies can serve to distort
international competition. We will need to see whether
there are any areas where explicit competition rules, or
specific understandings, are necessary internationally to
complement the statutes that many governments already
have on their books. I have no doubt that competition
rules are essential to the proper functioning of markets
- what we need to clarify, however, is how best to
promote such disciplines, both nationally and
internationally.
Some
WTO members would like to see the new agenda include the
subject of trade and social standards. This is a highly
controversial issue, and in the absence of a consensus
there is no possibility that it could be brought into the
agenda of the WTO.
It
is clear that what we need first and foremost is a
comprehensive effort to bring some clarity to the many
complex issues that are involved here.
The
first issue to be clarified is the nature of the subject;
are we talking about the comparative advantage of
developing countries which comes from lower wage levels -
as the issue is sometimes presented - or are we talking
about human rights or labour standards? It is
fundamentally important to clarify the terms of the
debate as it relates to trade.
The
second point is to identify what are the key issues
related to trade; for example, are we talking about child
labour or trade union rights in terms of labour standards
or in terms of human rights?
These
are just some of the preconditions for opening a
discussion on whether a useful debate is in fact possible
on these issues.
Fortunately,
we are not starting from zero. The debate on this issue
started in fact at the Versailles peace conference and
some of the principles involved have been reflected in
Article XX of the GATT from its beginning. In the
UN, in the OECD, in the ILO and in national
administrations, the debate has made valuable progress
and has even produced some practical measures. I would
like to refer especially to the most recent work of the
ILO, in order to identify some principles that could be
important for any discussion in the WTO. These principles
have been presented as "shared values" without
any dissent from the ILO's membership.
One
of these principles is that economic and social growth
and development are to a large extent interdependent.
When the economic situation is poor, the social situation
is also likely to be poor. And correspondingly, where
there is economic growth, social development is more
likely to come too.
While
no-one should challenge the legitimate right of
developing countries to use the comparative advantage of
lower costs, and no-one should use human rights and
issues of social standards as an excuse for disguised
protectionism, no country should deliberately deny
workers' rights or attempt to generate artificially-lower
costs by forced labour, discrimination against women,
exploitation of children or other such abuses.
We
should on no account allow this debate to re-open a
North-South divide. Dialogue is the best approach to
finding ways to improve the observance of labour
standards.
Finally,
the ILO has recognised the necessity of improving its
means of acting on these issues.
I
wanted to underline these points presented by the
chairperson of the ILO's Working Party on the Social
Dimensions of the Liberalization of International Trade
earlier this year because I think that on the basis of
these shared values there is the possibility of
establishing the starting point for a discussion of the
issue. I also believe that in order to convince
developing countries that no protectionist considerations
are involved in the debate, it is essential to prove that
all possible measures other than trade sanctions are
being taken to alleviate the problems. One excellent
example is the Memorandum of Understanding on the
elimination of child labour from the garments industry in
Bangladesh that was signed in July of this year by the
industry, the ILO and UNICEF, with support from the
Bangladesh and US Governments. This joint approach
combines restrictions on child labour with the
improvement of educational opportunities for the children
involved. This is a targeted and constructive approach to
a specific problem, and as such I believe it offers a
useful model for future efforts. On the other hand, to
simply restrict imports of garments from the industries
concerned would in all likelihood have just worsened the
situation of these children.
Let
me sum up my thinking on this issue by repeating the need
that I see for a wide-ranging and comprehensive
consideration of the issues; only in this way will it be
possible to generate the necessary confidence to build
consensus for a discussion on whether, and how, they
relate to trade.
Last
but not least, I should like to say a few words about two
related subjects - reciprocity and the growth of
regionalism in international trade relations.
There
are from time to time calls for trade policies based on
reciprocity instead of the basic MFN principle. These are
based on the assumption that the degree of liberalization
already reached by certain countries does not give them
any real defence in a multilateral negotiation vis-à-vis
those countries whose liberalization process is much less
advanced. Advocates of reciprocity argue that such
countries have no real incentive to deeper
liberalization, given their benefits from the MFN system.
I
would like to make a couple of points on this question.
The first is that to present reciprocity as an
alternative to MFN is a major departure from the trading
system we have built up over 50 years, and it is
just the opposite of what the founding fathers of the
multilateral system envisaged.
Secondly,
I can understand that a nation or regional group which
believes itself to be an open market has the right to
fight hard to obtain from all its partners the greatest
possible degree of liberalization. If this argument is
used tactically and temporarily as a negotiating device,
there is less need for alarm over its implications for
the system as a whole. But if it becomes a permanent
instrument of policy, then the risk for the multilateral
system could become serious.
Trade
is technical in its substance but highly political in its
consequences. Reciprocity as a structural alternative to
the multilateral system equals bilateralism; bilateralism
equals discrimination; and trade relations based on power
rather than rules are the result. This would be a very
dangerous departure from the success story of the
multilateral system.
The
growth of regionalism is a more complex issue. There is
no natural contradiction between regionalism and the
multilateral system. This has been the shared assessment
of the great majority of the international trade
community. The real contradiction, it must always be
emphasised, is between open trade and protectionism.
Regional trade initiatives can certainly help to lower
trade barriers and thus promote economic growth. But the
relationship between regionalism and a multilateral
system based on the MFN principle is nonetheless a
complex one. The provisions of the GATT have sought to
ensure compatibility by requiring regional agreements to
cover substantially all trade among the partners and to
promote trade policies which do not lead to higher
protection or extra restrictions on the trade of
non-members. In practice, however, it has been almost
impossible to assess the consistency of regional
agreements with the multilateral system under these
provisions. Since the creation of the GATT nearly
50 years ago, 108 regional agreements have been
notified. Eighty existing agreements have so far been
examined, and only six have been found consistent with
the rules I mentioned above (the EU is not one of them).
In recent times 20 new regional agreements have been
notified, and are waiting to be examined in the WTO. It
will come as no surprise that inconclusive results are
likely here as well. Clearly there is a need to improve
the rules and the procedures under which the WTO's
members can assess this crucial relationship. But it is
also clear that the legal issues are only part of the
story.
The
relation between regional and multilateral liberalization
in practice has been a different and generally more
positive story. For example, successive enlargements of
the European Union have been followed by multilateral
trade negotiations, which have maintained a de facto
link between progress at the regional level and at the
multilateral level. These links are the reason why most
people have seen regional agreements as building blocks
for multilateral free trade.
Is
the situation changing, and do we need to adjust this
generally positive perception? Let me suggest some
considerations.
Until
quite recently, there was only one large regional
grouping, and that was limited to a number of western
European countries. The US was historically opposed to
regionalism. But this situation has changed. Since the
1980s, the US has begun to build its own regional
agreements, through free trade with Canada, through
NAFTA, and through APEC, etc. Now, almost all the member
countries of the WTO also belong to a regional trade
agreement. The importance of regional agreements as a
means of tariff reduction has declined (this is also
thanks to the success of the GATT). Regional agreements
are becoming more and more important in terms of trade
rules, and for the political weight they represent in
international negotiations. These are elements which
could break up the parallelism between regional and
multilateral progress; there is the risk that antagonism
between regional groups could make progress in the
multilateral system more difficult.
Furthermore,
regional initiatives such as the suggestions for a
trans-Atlantic free trade area could give the impression
of re-erecting a discriminatory divide between the rich
North and the poorer South.
The
conclusion I draw is that we must be very attentive to
strengthening the linkage which has existed up to now
between regional and multilateral progress. What this
means in practical terms is that regional liberalization
initiatives must proceed almost in tandem with
multilateral ones. What countries are willing to do
regionally, they must then be willing to do
multilaterally, so as to keep this parallelism between
regional and multilateral commitments.
At
the core of this relationship, there is the basic
question of the kind of international system we want: a
global system based on the principle of
non-discrimination embodied in agreed and enforceable
rules, or a world divided into regional blocs with all
the consequences this would imply for political stability
and security.
To
sum up, it is clear that the challenges facing the
multilateral trading system are about much more than
trade matters as they used to be defined. I know that for
some people - and for some countries too - the pace of
change is unsettling and even alarming. Whether in the
challenges that the information revolution presents to
anyone over 30, or in the pace of economic globalization,
there is an understandable reflex which asks the world to
slow down a little. However, we know it will not.
If
we decrease our imports from the developing countries, we
decrease their growth and our growth alike. And the
growth of many developing countries will be the most
powerful engine for growth in developed countries.
At
the same time, if we reduce export opportunities for
developing countries we only increase unemployment and
poverty in these countries, and further restrict
opportunities for their young people.
And
if we try to close our borders both to goods and to
people we will just increase instability, violence, war
and terrorism. So the only sustainable policy for us and
for the developing countries is to continue a strong
commitment to openness.
That
is why we need to keep the multilateral system, with its
reliable framework of principles and rules in good
repair; it is a firm foothold in a shifting world.
Liberalization within the multilateral system means that
this unstoppable process can be implemented within
internationally agreed rules and disciplines. This is the
opposite of a chaotic and unchecked process - without the
security of the multilateral system, change would indeed
be a leap in the dark.
At
the same time, the multilateral system is becoming more
and more a political issue. This is happening because its
evolution increasingly concerns national regulatory
policies more than cross-border obstacles; and it is
happening because the challenges to the system are
increasingly political rather than technical. In this
context, it could become very important to consider the
possibility of strengthening the institutional basis of
the system - for example by enhancing the political
dimension of its central institution, the WTO.
It
is my profound conviction that the confluence of
political and economic events of the last few years
places us on the threshold of an unusual historic
opportunity: that of establishing a truly global system
for the conduct of international economic relations, a
system that responds readily to change and to changing
needs, and one for which every nation will wish to claim
ownership. Let us rise to this challenge, just as Spaak
and the other builders of the postwar world did to
theirs. Their achievements have shaped our present, and
they should inspire our future.
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