WTO: 2008 PRESS RELEASES
Press/520/Rev.1
WORLD TRADE 2007, PROSPECTS FOR 2008
WTO: developing, transition economies cushion trade slowdown
World trade growth slid to 5.5% last year from 8.5% in 2006 and may grow even more slowly in 2008 — at about 4.5% — as sharp economic deceleration in key developed countries is only partly offset by continuing strong growth in emerging economies, according to World Trade Organization economists.
SEE ALSO:
> Press releases
> WTO news archives
> Pascal
Lamy’s speeches
Last year’s press release (12 April 2007)
> Risks lie ahead following stronger
trade in 2006, WTO reports
World trade growth slid to 5.5% last year from 8.5% in 2006 and may grow even
more slowly in 2008 — at about 4.5% — as sharp economic deceleration in key
developed countries is only partly offset by continuing strong growth in
emerging economies, according to World Trade Organization economists.
WTO economists cautioned that their preliminary assessment of 2007 trade figures
and forecasts for this year have been unusually difficult to gauge due to the
uncertainty caused by sharp market fluctuations.
The financial market turbulence, which has considerably reduced economic growth
projections for some major developed markets, has clouded the prospects for
world trade in 2008.
The present economic growth forecast for these markets is 1.1%. For developing
countries, growth is forecast at above 5%. Together these could result in world
output growth of 2.6% and a global trade expansion of about 4.5% in real terms,
that is, discounting inflation.
“These are uncertain and troubling times for the global economy,” said Director-General Pascal Lamy. “To date, the financial market turmoil, significant price surges and the slow-down of developed economies have not led to a disruption of trade. But protectionist pressures are building as policymakers seek answers to the problems that confront us. More than ever we must reinforce our global trading system with rules that are more transparent, predictable and equitable.
“A reinforced trading system is an essential anchor for economic stability and
development. Clearly, the best way to achieve this is to conclude the Doha
Development round. The time for posturing and delay has ended. What we need now
is action,” he said.
The preliminary figure of 5.5% trade growth for 2007 is slightly lower than the
6% forecast for 2007 this time last year. The global economy and world trade
started to slow down in 2007 due to the deceleration of demand in the developed
regions. North America showed the weakest growth in output, measured as gross
domestic product (GDP).
Developing economies and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region
1,
however, maintained or strengthened their expansion of output, contributing more
than 40% of world output growth in 2007. Developing countries’ share of world
merchandise trade (exports plus imports) reached a new record level of 34% in
2007.
These two groups of countries are expected to record faster growth in imports
than exports; together they are expected to contribute more than one half of
global import growth in 2008.
The sharp rise of commodity prices — particularly fuels and metals — greatly
improved the financial situation of most developing regions and boosted imports.
But, higher energy and food prices translated into inflationary pressures
worldwide.
Significant variations occurred among major currencies, but not all exchange
rate movements were helpful to redress global imbalances. While European
currencies appreciated vis-à-vis the US dollar, changes in the currencies of
Asian economies with large current account surpluses had a mixed impact.
The decline of the US dollar in relation to the euro and other European
currencies inflated the dollar values of international trade transactions. The
dollar value of world merchandise exports rose by 15% to $13.6 trillion, and
that of commercial services by 18% to $3.3 trillion in 2007.
In real terms — with adjustment for price and exchange rate changes — real
merchandise exports were up by 5.5% in 2007 compared to 8.5% in 2006.
The situation in 2007
Global economic growth. Growth in world output and trade decelerated in 2007. Weaker demand in the developed economies reduced global economic growth to 3.4% from 3.7%, roughly the average rate recorded over the last decade. At some 7%, growth in the developing regions was nearly three times the rate recorded in the developed regions.
Economic expansion in the least-developed countries fully matched the growth
rate recorded by developing countries as a group in 2007, sustaining a pattern
that has been maintained since 2000.
The contribution of the developing countries to global output growth in 2007
exceeded 40% 2.
Domestic demand weakened sharply in the United States, which reduced the
external deficit and led to the weakest annual GDP growth rate (2.2%) since
2002. A further widening of the external surplus contributed to more than one
half of Japan’s 2.1% GDP growth rate in 2007.
Europe recorded GDP growth of 2.8% — a somewhat better performance than both
Japan and the United States last year. Stimulated by sharply higher export
earnings and rising investment, Russia’s economic growth of 8% was the strongest
annual rate since 2000.
In Central and South America, Africa, the Middle East and developing Asia,
economic expansion rates showed no signs of deceleration in 2007. The most
populous developing countries — China and India — continued to report
outstandingly high economic growth.
Investment. The favourable investment
climate maintained in developing regions and the Commonwealth of Independent
States more than offset the adverse effects of financial market turbulence,
especially that arising from the US sub-prime market crisis in the second half
of 2007.
Despite the adverse effects of scarce credit on the volume of mergers and
acquisitions, global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows continued to rise.
The UN Conference in Trade and Development (UNCTAD)3 provisionally estimated that
global FDI inflows rose by 18% to $1.54 trillion in 2007.
Foreign direct investment flows to Latin America (eg, Brazil, Chile and Mexico)
and Russia have been particularly strong (50% and 70% respectively). FDI flows
to developing Asia and the new EU member states are estimated to have seen less
dynamic growth in FDI inflows in 2007 than in the past.4
Exchange rates and inflation. Variations
in the exchange rates of major traders in 2007 did not always result in
effective exchange rate developments conducive to a reduction in global
imbalances.
While the US real effective exchange rate depreciated and contributed to a
smaller current account deficit relative to its GDP, the real effective exchange
rate of a number of current account surplus economies in East Asia (such as
Japan, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, China) also decreased, contributing to new
peak levels in the ratios of their respective current account surpluses to GDP
in 20075. The real effective exchange rates of the Chinese and Singaporean
currencies appreciated by 2% and 7% respectively in 2007, without arresting the
rise in their respective current account surpluses.6
The real appreciation of the euro had differing consequences for the export
performances of euro-zone economies. Thanks to a 20% increase in its exports,
Germany remained the world’s leading exporter of merchandise.
The length of the global upswing and the strength of economic activity outside
the industrial regions contributed to a further rise in the price of fuels and
pushed up domestic inflation rates. At the end of 2007 consumer prices in
developed and developing economies were increasing faster than at the beginning
of the year, by about 1 and 2 percentage points respectively.
Trade. Weaker demand in the developed
countries provided a less favourable framework for the expansion of
international trade in 2007 than in preceding years (Chart 1). Consequently,
world merchandise exports grew in real terms (that is, at constant prices) by
only 5.5%, compared to 8.5% in 2006.
Lower import growth than in the preceding year was observed in North America,
Europe, Japan and the net oil importing developing countries in Asia. This
downward trend outweighed the higher import growth observed in Central and South
America, the CIS, Africa and the Middle East. It is estimated that the
developing countries as a group accounted for more than one half of the increase
in world merchandise imports in 2007.
Among the leading traders, China’s (real) merchandise trade expansion remained
outstandingly strong in 2007 as lower export growth to the US and Japanese
markets was largely offset by higher export growth to Europe and a boom in
shipments to the net-oil-exporting regions. Despite a booming domestic economy,
weaker demand in some of China’s major export markets and a moderate real
effective appreciation of the yuan, import growth continued to lag behind export
growth.
Trade prospects for 2008
Recent developments cloud the near-term prospects for the world economy. Among
these developments are widely held expectations of recessionary tendencies in
the United States, weaker demand growth in both Europe and Japan, a rise in
inflation and depressed global stock markets.
More positive news come from developing countries and the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS), where strong output and trade growth are predicted.
Uncertainty arises as to how long the developing countries can maintain a strong
pace of economic growth in the face of sluggish demand in the major developed
markets and rising inflationary pressures.
The central projections retained by major institutional forecasters indicate a
further deceleration in world economic growth in 20087.
If turbulence in international financial markets could be contained soon, and
its impact on the real economy limited, world output could still grow at 2.6%
(GDP measured at market exchange rates).
Domestic demand in the United States stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2007 and
may shrink in the first half of 2008. Imports of goods and services contracted
between the third and fourth quarter in 2007 (seasonally adjusted) and are
likely to decrease further quarter-to-quarter in the first half of 2008.
Exports, however, are expected to grow, sustained by a strong real effective
depreciation and excess capacity in the US economy caused by sluggish domestic
demand.
The slowdown in GDP growth in Europe is expected to be less pronounced than in
the United States, maintaining developed country economic growth at slightly
above 1% in 2008.
Despite signs of weaker demand in the United States and Europe in recent months,
commodity prices started to rise faster again, helping to sustain short term
growth prospects in most developing regions and the CIS.
In addition, these regions’ reliance on developed markets for their exports has
markedly decreased over recent years, which should limit the adverse effects of
lower import demand from the developed countries. Foreign exchange reserves
increased sharply and external debt levels have been reduced.
These trends should help developing countries and the CIS to maintain high
investment and consumption levels, even if there is some softening of commodity
prices in the second half of 2008. Overall, it is expected that GDP growth in
developing countries and the CIS may be maintained at a level above 5% and
import growth above 10% in 2008. Broadly, this is a positive picture for developing countries as a whole. But it has to be qualified because the picture is different in many low-income food-deficit countries due to the recent sharp increase in food prices. As the prices of major cereals doubled on international markets between mid-2007 and March 2008 many developing countries are concerned about food security and a sharp rise in their import bill in 2008. Given the large share of food in the consumption of the poor in these countries, there is a risk that higher food prices could lead to an increase in poverty. The political consequences of higher food prices are already being felt through civil disturbances in some countries. This situation poses grave challenges for governments. On the other hand, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization expects world cereal output to increase by 2.6% this year, which, if realized, could ease the situation somewhat in the second half of the year8.
Assuming a basic scenario of global GDP growth between 2.5% and 3%, global
merchandise trade could slow down to about 4.5% in 2008, or about 1 percentage
point less than in 2007. This estimate is supported by the results of the WTO
Secretariat’s time series forecasting model which predicts a slowdown in the
OECD area’s imports of goods and services to 3%, a further 1.5 percentage point
decrease from the already subdued rate observed in 20079.
This pessimistic outlook must be seen in the context of further significant
downside risks, as foreshadowed by the severe declines in business sentiment
captured by the Information and Forschung (IFO) economic climate indices for the
euro area and the world as a whole.
Chart 1: Real GDP and trade growth of OECD countries, 2006-07
% changes, year to year
Source: OECD National Accounts.
The risks attached to this scenario turn primarily on financial market
developments. The repercussions of the dramatic downturn in the US property
market has spread to other financial sectors (eg, investment banking), spilled
over to the private international banking system, and curtailed bank liquidity
as inter-bank lending dwindled to a fraction of the level before the outbreak of
the crisis. Some major stock markets have lost about one quarter of market
capitalisation from their peak in 2007.
A sharp cut in US interest rates brought only short term breathing space for the
financial markets but caused havoc on the exchange and commodity markets in the
first quarter of 2008 as holders of dollar assets tried to limit their exposure
to a likely further decline in the currency. The dollar reached record low
levels against major currencies and oil and gold prices attained historic peak
levels.
The adverse consequences of turmoil on financial markets will not only affect US
demand growth but also lead to further downward revisions in economic growth for
Japan and Western Europe. As world trade responds strongly to variations in
global economic activity a stronger than projected deceleration in world
economic growth could cut trade growth much more sharply, to significantly less
than the 4.5% predicted above. (Income elasticity — how much trade responds to
changes in income — has been between 1.5 and 2 over the last decade, indicating
that trade reacts significantly.)
Real merchandise trade and output developments in 2007
The slowdown in economic activity in developed
countries was the major factor in the reduced expansion of global trade in 2007.
Real merchandise export growth is provisionally estimated at 5.5% in 2007,
nearly 3 percentage points less than in 2006 but still close to the average rate
of trade expansion over the last decade (1997-2007). The expansion of real trade
exceeded global output growth by 2 percentage points (Chart 2).
Chart 2: Growth in the volume of world merchandise
trade and GDP, 1997-2007
Annual % change
Source: WTO Secretariat
In 2007, the variation in real trade growth among regions remained large,
reflecting marked differences in economic activity and relative price
developments. Major terms-of-trade gains could be observed again in countries
and regions exporting primarily fuels or minerals. (“Terms of trade” is a phrase
comparing export and import prices.)
More recently net-food exporters have also enjoyed gains from favourable
terms-of-trade movements. Unsurprisingly, thanks to their faster income growth
and increased international purchasing power, net exporters of mining products
(fuels and minerals) recorded a double-digit rise in their imports, while
exports tended to increase less than the global average.
South and Central America and the Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) increased their real merchandise imports by about 20%, more than three
times the global average in 2007. South and Central American exports were up by
5% and those of the CIS by 6% (Table 1 and
Chart 3). As mining products account
for more than half of African and Middle East merchandise exports, these
regions have been major beneficiaries of relative price changes over the last
three years. Consequently, these regions increased their import volume by about
12% while their exports almost stagnated in real terms.
Exports from Asia rose by 11.5% in real terms, again exceeding
significantly the region’s import growth (8.5%). Within the Asian region very
large variations could be observed on the import side. While China and India
recorded double digit import growth, the comparable figure for Japan was
practically stagnant (1%). The trade performance of the four so-called newly
industrialized economies — Hong Kong China, Republic of Korea, Singapore and
Chinese Taipei — continued to be less dynamic than that of the region as a
whole, but still recorded an excess of export growth over import growth (8.5%
and 7% respectively).
North America’s real merchandise exports rose somewhat less than global
trade but more than twice as fast as imports. The excess of regional export
growth over import growth can be attributed largely to the United States, where
import volumes increased only marginally (1%), while exports expanded by 7% in
2007. Canada and Mexico, two net exporters of mining products, with currencies
strongly appreciating against the US dollar, increased their merchandise imports
much faster than exports.
Table 1: GDP and merchandise trade by region,
2005-07
Annual % change at constant prices
|
GDP |
Exports |
Imports |
||||||
|
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
World |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
6.5 |
8.5 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
8.0 |
5.5 |
North America |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
6.0 |
8.5 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
6.0 |
2.5 |
United States |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
7.0 |
10.5 |
7.0 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
1.0 |
South and Central America a |
5.6 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
8.0 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
14.0 |
15.0 |
20.0 |
Europe |
1.9 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
7.5 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
3.5 |
European Union (27) |
1.8 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
7.0 |
3.0 |
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) |
6.7 |
7.5 |
8.4 |
3.5 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
18.0 |
21.5 |
18.0 |
Africa and Middle East |
5.6 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
14.5 |
6.5 |
12.5 |
Asia |
4.2 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
11.0 |
13.0 |
11.5 |
8.0 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
China |
10.4 |
11.1 |
11.4 |
25.0 |
22.0 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
16.5 |
13.5 |
Japan b |
1.9 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
5.0 |
10.0 |
9.0 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
India |
9.0 |
9.7 |
9.1 |
21.5 |
11.0 |
10.5 |
28.5 |
9.5 |
13.0 |
Newly industrialized economies (4) c |
4.9 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
8.0 |
12.5 |
8.5 |
5.0 |
8.5 |
7.0 |
a Includes the Caribbean.
b Trade volume data are derived from customs values deflated by standard
unit values and an adjusted price index for electronic goods.
c Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Chinese Taipei.
Source: WTO Secretariat.
European trade performance was somewhat atypical in 2007. A slight
deceleration in economic growth (by 0.1 percentage points) is reported, together
with a sharp reduction in the expansion rate of both exports and imports (3.5
percentage points). The slowdown in Europe’s trade is particularly pronounced
for intra-EU trade.10
Europe’s real merchandise export and import growth of 3.5% in 2007 continued to
lag behind the global rate of trade expansion, as has been the case since 2002.
Within Europe, individual countries’ trade performances differed widely in 2007.
Three groups can be distinguished. First, most of the new EU members and Turkey
expanded exports and imports by more than 10%. Second, Germany, the Netherlands,
Austria, Belgium and Switzerland registered trade growth of about 5%. The third
group’s trade was almost stagnant (eg, France, Spain, Ireland and Malta).
Chart 3: Real merchandise trade growth by region,
2007
Annual % change
a Includes the Caribbean.
Source: WTO Secretariat
Nominal trade developments in 200711
Merchandise trade
The structure of world merchandise exports in dollar value terms was strongly
affected by developments in relative prices and exchange rates in 2007. Price
developments differed widely by sector and region in the course of the year.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), commodity price indices,
world export prices of fuels, food and beverages increased sharply in the course
of the year while prices for agricultural raw materials ended the year at a
lower level than at the start. Prices for metals, which had risen by more than
one half in 2006, continued to rise to new record levels in the first half
before falling back by December to the level reached in January 2007. Comparing
the annual averages, prices increased by 18% for metals, 15% for food and
beverages, 10% for fuels and only 5% for agricultural raw materials (Chart 4).
Export prices of manufactured goods are estimated to have increased by about 9%
in 200712. Different types of manufactured goods saw quite different price
movements. Export prices for iron and steel products rose at double digit rates,
while those of office and telecom equipment were estimated to have decreased
again. Available information on export prices for chemicals point to a faster
increase in these product groups than for the average of manufactured goods,
while prices for automotive products increased somewhat below average.
Chart 4: Export prices of selected primary
products, 2005-2007
Annual % change
a Comprising coffee, cocoa beans and tea.
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.
Prices of manufactured goods remained less strong than those of primary products
for the fourth consecutive year. These shifts in relative prices had a
significant impact on regional export unit values (prices) which ranged from
increases of about 10% to 13% for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS),
Africa and the Middle East, to between 4% and 5% in Asia and North America.
Information on price developments in world commercial services trade is not
available. However, the price deflators for US services exports and imports
increased by 3% in 2007, somewhat less strongly than in the preceding year.
Exchange rate developments in 2007 had a major impact on the dollar price level
of internationally traded goods. Contrary to developments in 2006, the US dollar
depreciated strongly (in terms of annual averages) against the major European
currencies and the currencies of major exporters of mining products (such as
Canada, Australia and Russia).
In Asia the picture was mixed. The currencies of Japan, Hong Kong China, and
Chinese Taipei remained practically unchanged against the US dollar (annual
averages) while those of India, Thailand and the Philippines increased by about
10%. An intermediate development can be observed for the currencies of China,
Singapore and Malaysia, which appreciated by about 5% against the US dollar.
The combination of an export structure concentrated largely on electronic goods
and other manufactures and a moderate average appreciation of the Asian
currencies against the US dollar kept Asian export prices at about half the
world average in 2007. In marked contrast, European dollar export prices rose at
double-digit rates, largely due to exchange rate changes.
Chart 5: Dollar exchange rates of selected major
currencies, 2001-07
Indices, January 2001=100
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics.
World merchandise exports in dollar terms rose by 15% to $13.6 trillion in 2007.
Almost two thirds of this change in the dollar value can be attributed to
inflation. Commercial services exports rose by 18% to $3.3 trillion. The
increase in commercial services exports in 2007 was markedly faster than in the
preceding year and somewhat faster than that of merchandise trade, which
expanded slightly less than in 2006 (Table 2).
Table 2: World exports of merchandise and
commercial services, 2000–07
$bn and %
|
Value |
Annual percentage change |
|||
|
2007 |
2000-07 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Merchandise |
13 570 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
Commercial services |
3 260 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
18 |
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Merchandise exports by region in dollar terms are the result of a combination of
factors including demand, prices, exchange rates and capital flows. The region
with the highest expansion of both exports and imports in 2007 was the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which benefited from strong
domestic demand, favourable relative price developments over the last three
years and increases in FDI inflows. Imports into the region rose by one third in
2007, twice as fast as world trade, while exports rose by close to 20%.
Consequently in 2007 the share of the CIS in world merchandise exports and
imports rose to its highest level since 1990 (Appendix Table 1).
The very high levels of primary commodity prices, in particular those of oil and
metals, underpinned the strong expansion of South and Central America’s
merchandise trade values. The region continued to record a merchandise trade
surplus, although imports rose by nearly one quarter while exports registered an
increase of around 15%. Brazil, which alone accounts for one third of the
region’s exports, reported import growth of nearly one third as compared to
about half that level in respect of export growth. Argentina, Colombia and Peru
also recorded a strong trade performance in dollar terms, with imports and
exports growing faster than the regional average.
Europe was the only region reporting a stronger increase in the dollar
value of its exports in 2007 than in 2006 (16% and 13% respectively). Import
growth was only slightly less than export growth, and also somewhat faster than
in the preceding year. This acceleration in nominal trade growth is entirely due
to the strong appreciation of the European currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar in
200713. There were major differences among European traders. Some countries
reported stagnation in their trade ( e.g. the United Kingdom) while most of the
new EU members recorded dollar value growth rates in excess of 20%. These
dynamic traders benefited not only from FDI inflows but also from their
proximity to the booming CIS region.14
Due to the sharp deceleration in US import growth North American imports
rose by only 6%, the smallest increase of all regions in 2007. China replaced
Canada for the first time as the United States’ leading supplier, although US
imports from its partners in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA, ie,
Canada and Mexico) and Asia increased both roughly in line with total imports.
United States imports from China rose by 12%, more than twice as fast as total
imports, despite very weak US import demand in electronic goods (–4%) and
clothing (3%), two prominent sectors of US imports from China.
In contrast to the strong import growth from China, US imports from Japan and
other Asian economies declined or stagnated. United States merchandise exports
to the world rose twice as much as its imports, despite sluggish exports to
NAFTA partners and Japan. The expansion of US exports to Europe (16%) and China
(18%) exceeded the growth in bilateral imports (6% and 12% respectively). United
States exports were even more dynamic to the mineral exporting regions, rising
by one fifth to Central and South America and the Middle East, and by one
quarter to Africa.
For the first time since 2002 Africa’s merchandise exports rose less than
its imports. The figures for 2007 were 15% for exports and 22% for imports.
Exports to China alone increased by one quarter, and imports by 40%. South
Africa, the region’s largest merchandise trader, reported a deceleration of its
import growth and an acceleration of its export growth, in marked contrast to
the other African countries. Somewhat unexpected is the preliminary finding that
imports of the non-oil exporting African countries increased as rapidly as those
of the oil-exporting countries.
The Middle East’s merchandise exports are estimated to have grown by 10%
in 2007, roughly in line with the increase in crude oil prices. Yet oil prices
do not explain all export developments in this region, and the leading exporters
in the region, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, recorded below average
growth while Israel and Jordan (both non-oil exporters) expanded their shipments
more than the average growth rate for the region. Merchandise imports are
estimated to have increased by 23%. Imports of Saudi Arabia and Qatar increased
by about one third, while those of Iran and Yemen rose at rates well below the
average.
Asia’s merchandise exports continued to expand slightly more than world
exports and also slightly more than the region’s imports, further widening the
region’s merchandise trade surplus despite a stronger increase in import prices
than in export prices. In 2007, the trade performance of Asian economies again
showed major differences. While China, India and Viet Nam recorded export and
import growth rates above 20%, Japan and the four Asian newly industrialized
economies (NIEs — Hong Kong China, Rep. of Korea, Singapore and Chinese Taipei)
expanded their trade by about 10% (Appendix Table 1). China further advanced its
pre-eminence among Asian traders in 2007. For the first time its trade (exports
plus imports) exceeded the combined trade of Japan and the Republic of Korea,
the second and third largest merchandise traders in Asia.15
From the regional review above it is apparent that the developing countries
fared well in the expansion of trade in 2007. Their combined merchandise exports
rose by 16%, to $5.0 trillion, and imports rose by 18%, resulting in an
aggregate surplus in excess of $450 billion. The share of developing countries
in world merchandise trade reached 34%, an all-time record level.
For the least-developed countries, thanks largely to higher commodity prices,
the expansion of merchandise exports was even stronger than for the developing
countries over the last seven years. Least-developed country exports are
estimated to have increased by about 16%, to $120 billion in 2007. At 0.9%,
their share in world merchandise exports remained at its highest level since
1980 (the first year for which records were kept).
Developing countries’ merchandise imports rose by 17%, somewhat faster than
world trade. But these countries show differences in commodity composition,
individual country performance, and relative country size. Therefore, grouping
them as developing countries or least-developed countries is becoming less
meaningful for trade analysis (Appendix Table 1).
World merchandise trade by leading exporters and importers in 2007 is reviewed
in Appendix Tables 3 and 4. Despite a marked variation in trade performance, the
changes in the ranking of the top 30 exporters has largely been limited to a
rise or fall of one position. Only India, and the Czech Republic gained two
positions in the rankings. Among the top ten exporters two North American
traders lost one position, with China moving ahead of the United States to
number two and Belgium replacing Canada as number nine. The decrease in recorded
UK exports of 3% helped Italy to move up and become the seventh largest
exporter.
On the import side Japan again imported more than the United Kingdom, although
both recorded rather weak import growth. Major downward shifts in the import
ranking are observed for Switzerland (down four positions), which was overtaken
by Turkey and Poland (up 3 and 4 positions respectively). Among the 10 Asian
traders in the top 30 importers five recorded a lower ranking than in 2006,
three maintained their position and two (Australia and Japan) recorded a higher
ranking.
Since 2001, when China joined the WTO, its exports and imports have expanded on
average by 25% annually, more than twice as much as world trade. Since 2004
China’s merchandise trade (exports and imports) overtook that of Japan and in
2007 its merchandise exports outstripped those of the United States. Despite
this strong trade expansion, China remained the second largest merchandise
exporter in 2007 after the EU (or Germany).
Commercial services trade
World commercial services exports rose by 18% to $3.3
trillion in 200716. The acceleration in services exports could be observed in all
major regions and in all three services categories.17
Much of this acceleration is due to exchange rate movements and in some cases
also to higher costs of transportation fuels. It can be assumed that exchange
rate changes played a stronger role in the dollar value change of services trade
than in merchandise trade, as Europe (with its appreciating currencies) accounts
for a larger share of services than merchandise exports.
Among the three broad commercial services categories, transportation, travel and
“other commercial services”, the last of these has been the fastest growing
category over the last seven years and accounts for slightly more than one half
of total services exports. In 2007, other commercial services expanded by 19%,
again more than transportation and travel. Higher fuels cost contributed to the
relatively sharp rise in the dollar value of transportation services (Table 3).
Table 3: World exports of commercial services trade by major category,
2000-07
$bn and percentage change
|
Value |
Annual % change |
|||
|
2007 |
2000-07 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Commercial services |
3 260 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
18 |
Transport |
742 |
11 |
13 |
9 |
18 |
Travel |
862 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
14 |
Other commercial services |
1 653 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
19 |
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Commercial services trade by region is presented in
Appendix Table 2.
Europe’s commercial services exports and imports were up by 19% and
17% respectively, consolidating Europe’s leading position in world
services trade by region18. Europe’s other commercial services and
transportation services expanded markedly more than travel services for
both exports and imports. For the latter category the preliminary data
indicate that Europe’s travel receipts lagged somewhat behind the
expansion rate of global travel receipts.
The United Kingdom and Germany, the two largest services traders in
Europe, experienced an increase in their services exports in line with
European exports. The increase in France, Italy and the Netherlands was
weaker than the European average, but much stronger than the average in
Spain, Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland and Poland. On the import side
Spain, Denmark and Sweden recorded services import growth in excess of
20% (Appendix Table 5).
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) registered the
highest export and import growth in commercial services trade of all
regions in 2007, but still has the smallest share in world services
trade.
Asia’s commercial services trade rose only slightly faster than
the world total in 2007. Exports of all three services categories
expanded at roughly the same rate, while on the import side travel
expenditure is estimated to have been much weaker than the other two
services categories.
The development of commercial services trade differed widely among the
Asian economies. Somewhat weak export and import growth in dollar terms
was reported for Japan and Chinese Taipei, while growth remained
moderate for Hong Kong China, and Singapore. Services exports and
imports rose by more than 20% in China, Malaysia and Australia19. India is
estimated to have one of the strongest import expansion rates for
commercial services in Asia, while its services exports rose less than
the global average for the first time since 1996.
North America’s commercial services trade recorded the weakest
export and import expansion of all regions in dollar value terms I
n2007. Although exports rose more than in the preceding year, for the
seventh year in a row, annual growth lagged behind that of global trade
expansion.
US services imports grew by 9%, one of the smallest increases among the
30 leading traders reported in Appendix Table 5. US services exports
rose by 14%, contributing to a rise in the US trade surplus in
commercial services of $120 billion. Canada’s services exports was among
those most affected by the slowdown in the US economy, rising by a mere
6% in 2007. The appreciation of the Canadian dollar stimulated Canadian
travel expenditure in the United States and contributed to a rise in
services imports of 11%.
In South and Central America commercial services imports expanded
more than exports in 2007. According to preliminary data this
development was largely due to the travel account, as it is estimated
that travel expenditure in the region rose by about one quarter, or
twice as fast as receipts. Brazil, the leading services trader of the
region, was also one of the most dynamic, as exports and imports rose by
about one quarter in 2007.
The trade performance of the leading commercial services exporters
and importers differed widely in 2007. The shifts in ranking among
the leading traders reported in Appendix Table 5 should be interpreted
with great caution. For many countries changes in methodology are
reported and only in a few cases can the new method be applied to
previous years without a break in the time series. In addition, for a
large number of major traders the data are still preliminary and subject
to future revisions.
On the basis of the preliminary data, the four leading traders, namely
the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan, maintained
their rank for both exports and imports. Although China’s full-year data
are not yet available it seems to have moved ahead of Italy and become
the seventh largest exporter of commercial services. Among the major
shifts in the export ranking, Canada and Austria lost four and eight
positions respectively, while the Republic of Korea gained five
positions. Austria’s lower ranking is largely due to a revision in
methodology which also caused a similar drop on the import side. As
discussed above, Canada recorded one of the weakest export growth rates
among the leading traders due to sluggish exports to the United States,
its major market. The gains in Korea’s services exports are based on the
strong performance reported for transportation services.
On the import side, a gain of at least two positions could be observed
for Spain, Russia and Australia, which all reported import growth of
over 20% in 2007. Based on preliminary data, France has probably lost
its number five position in the importer ranking to China.
Appendix Table 1
Merchandise trade, world, by region and selected country, 2007
$bn and %
|
Exports |
Imports |
||||||||
|
Value |
Annual % change |
Value |
Annual % change |
||||||
|
2007 |
2000-07 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2007 |
2000-07 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
World |
13 570 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
13 940 |
11 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
North America |
1 854 |
6 |
12 |
13 |
11 |
2 704 |
7 |
14 |
11 |
6 |
United States |
1 163 |
6 |
10 |
15 |
12 |
2 017 |
7 |
14 |
11 |
5 |
Canada |
418 |
6 |
14 |
8 |
8 |
390 |
7 |
15 |
11 |
9 |
Mexico |
272 |
7 |
13 |
17 |
9 |
297 |
7 |
12 |
16 |
11 |
South and Central America a |
496 |
14 |
25 |
21 |
15 |
455 |
12 |
23 |
22 |
26 |
Brazil |
161 |
17 |
23 |
16 |
17 |
127 |
12 |
17 |
23 |
32 |
Other South and Central America a |
335 |
13 |
26 |
24 |
14 |
328 |
12 |
25 |
21 |
23 |
Europe |
5 769 |
12 |
9 |
13 |
16 |
6 055 |
12 |
10 |
15 |
16 |
European Union (27) |
5 314 |
12 |
8 |
13 |
16 |
5 569 |
12 |
10 |
14 |
15 |
Germany |
1 327 |
13 |
7 |
14 |
20 |
1 059 |
11 |
9 |
17 |
17 |
France |
552 |
8 |
3 |
7 |
11 |
613 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
13 |
United Kingdom b |
436 |
6 |
11 |
17 |
-3 |
617 |
9 |
9 |
17 |
3 |
Netherlands |
551 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
19 |
491 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
18 |
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) |
508 |
20 |
28 |
25 |
19 |
377 |
24 |
25 |
31 |
34 |
Russia |
355 |
19 |
33 |
25 |
17 |
223 |
26 |
29 |
31 |
35 |
Africa |
422 |
16 |
30 |
19 |
15 |
355 |
15 |
21 |
14 |
22 |
South Africa |
70 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
20 |
91 |
17 |
17 |
24 |
18 |
Africa less South Africa |
352 |
17 |
34 |
20 |
14 |
264 |
15 |
23 |
11 |
24 |
Oil exporters c |
247 |
19 |
44 |
21 |
14 |
97 |
18 |
28 |
9 |
25 |
Non oil exporters |
105 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
167 |
13 |
21 |
11 |
24 |
Middle East |
721 |
15 |
35 |
21 |
10 |
462 |
16 |
21 |
13 |
23 |
Asia |
3 798 |
13 |
16 |
18 |
16 |
3 528 |
13 |
17 |
16 |
14 |
China |
1 218 |
25 |
28 |
27 |
26 |
956 |
23 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
Japan |
713 |
6 |
5 |
9 |
10 |
621 |
7 |
13 |
13 |
7 |
India |
145 |
19 |
30 |
21 |
20 |
217 |
23 |
43 |
23 |
24 |
Newly industrialized economies (4) d |
936 |
10 |
12 |
15 |
11 |
935 |
9 |
13 |
16 |
12 |
Memorandum items: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developing economies |
4 967 |
15 |
22 |
20 |
16 |
4 517 |
14 |
18 |
17 |
18 |
MERCOSUR e |
224 |
15 |
21 |
16 |
18 |
184 |
11 |
20 |
23 |
31 |
ASEAN f |
863 |
10 |
15 |
18 |
12 |
773 |
11 |
17 |
14 |
12 |
EU (27) extra-trade |
1 695 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
16 |
1 949 |
11 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
Least Developed Countries (LDCs) |
120 |
19 |
36 |
24 |
16 |
118 |
15 |
21 |
15 |
17 |
a. Includes the Caribbean. For composition of groups see the
Technical Notes of WTO, International Trade Statistics, 2007.
b. The 2007 annual change is affected by a reduction in trade
associated with fraudulent VAT declaration. For further information,
refer to the special notes of the monthly UK Trade First Release (www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=1119)
c. Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea,
Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan.
d. Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Chinese
Taipei.
e. Common Market of the Southern Cone: Argentina, Brazil,
Paraguay, Uruguay
f. Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Brunei, Cambodia,
Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand,
Viet Nam
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Appendix Table 2
Commercial services, world exports by region and selected country,
2007
$bn and %
|
Exports |
Imports |
||||||||
|
Value |
Annual % change |
Value |
Annual % change |
||||||
|
2007 |
2000–07 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2007 |
2000–07 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
World |
3 260 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
18 |
3 060 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
16 |
North America |
533 |
7 |
11 |
9 |
13 |
440 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
United States |
454 |
7 |
11 |
10 |
14 |
336 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
Canada |
61 |
7 |
11 |
7 |
6 |
80 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
Mexico |
17 |
4 |
15 |
2 |
6 |
24 |
5 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
South and Central America a |
91 |
10 |
20 |
13 |
16 |
97 |
8 |
22 |
15 |
18 |
Brazil |
23 |
14 |
28 |
21 |
25 |
34 |
12 |
39 |
21 |
24 |
Europe |
1 662 |
13 |
10 |
10 |
19 |
1 434 |
12 |
9 |
9 |
17 |
European Union (27) |
1 512 |
13 |
9 |
10 |
19 |
1 337 |
12 |
9 |
9 |
17 |
United Kingdom |
263 |
12 |
6 |
10 |
17 |
193 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
13 |
Germany |
197 |
14 |
10 |
12 |
18 |
245 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
15 |
France |
130 |
7 |
5 |
0 |
11 |
120 |
11 |
8 |
2 |
12 |
Italy |
109 |
10 |
6 |
10 |
12 |
117 |
11 |
8 |
11 |
19 |
Spain |
127 |
14 |
10 |
12 |
21 |
97 |
17 |
13 |
17 |
24 |
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) |
64 |
20 |
20 |
23 |
25 |
90 |
21 |
18 |
17 |
29 |
Russia |
38 |
22 |
21 |
24 |
25 |
57 |
20 |
18 |
15 |
30 |
Africa |
84 |
15 |
13 |
19 |
21 |
97 |
15 |
21 |
14 |
19 |
Egypt |
18 |
10 |
3 |
10 |
16 |
12 |
7 |
27 |
8 |
15 |
South Africa |
13 |
15 |
15 |
7 |
8 |
16 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
14 |
Middle East |
79 |
13 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
125 |
14 |
20 |
19 |
17 |
Israel |
21 |
5 |
9 |
10 |
10 |
18 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
24 |
Asia |
745 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
19 |
778 |
11 |
12 |
14 |
17 |
Japan |
136 |
9 |
14 |
14 |
11 |
157 |
5 |
2 |
9 |
9 |
China |
127 |
... |
19 |
24 |
... |
129 |
... |
16 |
21 |
... |
India |
86 |
... |
... |
35 |
15 |
78 |
... |
... |
33 |
24 |
Newly industrialized economies (4) b |
243 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
230 |
11 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
a. Includes the Caribbean. For composition
of groups see Chapter IV Metadata of WTO International Trade Statistics, 2007.
b. Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Chinese Taipei.
Note: While provisional full year data were available in early March for
33 countries accounting for more than 60% of world commercial services trade,
estimates for most other countries are based on data for the first three
quarters (the first six months in the case of China).
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Appendix Table 3
Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2007
$bn and %
Rank |
Exporters |
Value |
Share |
Annual % change |
Rank |
Importers |
Value |
Share |
Annual % change |
1 |
Germany |
1 327 |
9.5 |
20 |
1 |
United States |
2 017 |
14.2 |
5 |
2 |
China |
1 218 |
8.8 |
26 |
2 |
Germany |
1 059 |
7.5 |
17 |
3 |
United States |
1 163 |
8.4 |
12 |
3 |
China |
956 |
6.7 |
21 |
4 |
Japan |
713 |
5.1 |
10 |
4 |
Japan |
621 |
4.4 |
7 |
5 |
France |
552 |
4.0 |
11 |
5 |
United Kingdom a |
617 |
4.3 |
3 |
6 |
Netherlands |
551 |
4.0 |
19 |
6 |
France |
613 |
4.3 |
13 |
7 |
Italy |
492 |
3.5 |
18 |
7 |
Italy |
505 |
3.6 |
14 |
8 |
United Kingdom a |
436 |
3.1 |
-3 |
8 |
Netherlands |
491 |
3.5 |
18 |
9 |
Belgium |
432 |
3.1 |
18 |
9 |
Belgium |
416 |
2.9 |
18 |
10 |
Canada |
418 |
3.0 |
8 |
10 |
Canada |
390 |
2.7 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
Korea, Rep |
372 |
2.7 |
14 |
11 |
Spain |
374 |
2.6 |
14 |
12 |
Russia |
355 |
2.6 |
17 |
12 |
Hong Kong, China |
371 |
2.6 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
—retained imports b |
96 |
0.7 |
... |
13 |
Hong Kong, China |
350 |
2.5 |
8 |
13 |
Korea, Republic of |
357 |
2.5 |
15 |
|
—domestic exports b |
19 |
0.1 |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
—re-exports b |
331 |
2.4 |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
Singapore |
299 |
2.2 |
10 |
14 |
Mexico |
297 |
2.1 |
11 |
|
—domestic exports |
156 |
1.1 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
—re-exports |
143 |
1.0 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
15 |
Mexico |
272 |
2.0 |
9 |
15 |
Singapore |
263 |
1.9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
—retained imports c |
120 |
1.1 |
9 |
16 |
Taipei, Chinese |
246 |
1.8 |
10 |
16 |
Russia d |
223 |
1.6 |
35 |
17 |
Spain |
242 |
1.7 |
13 |
17 |
Taipei, Chinese |
220 |
1.5 |
8 |
18 |
Saudi Arabia b |
229 |
1.6 |
8 |
18 |
India |
217 |
1.5 |
24 |
19 |
Malaysia |
176 |
1.3 |
10 |
19 |
Turkey |
170 |
1.2 |
22 |
20 |
Switzerland |
172 |
1.2 |
16 |
20 |
Australia |
165 |
1.2 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21 |
Sweden |
168 |
1.2 |
14 |
21 |
Austria |
162 |
1.1 |
18 |
22 |
Austria |
162 |
1.2 |
19 |
22 |
Poland |
161 |
1.1 |
27 |
23 |
Brazil |
161 |
1.2 |
17 |
23 |
Switzerland |
161 |
1.1 |
14 |
24 |
United Arab Emirates b |
154 |
1.1 |
8 |
24 |
Sweden |
150 |
1.1 |
18 |
25 |
Thailand |
152 |
1.1 |
17 |
25 |
Malaysia |
147 |
1.0 |
12 |
26 |
India |
145 |
1.0 |
20 |
26 |
Thailand |
141 |
1.0 |
8 |
27 |
Australia |
141 |
1.0 |
14 |
27 |
Brazil |
127 |
0.9 |
32 |
28 |
Norway |
139 |
1.0 |
14 |
28 |
United Arab Emirates b |
121 |
0.9 |
24 |
29 |
Poland |
138 |
1.0 |
24 |
29 |
Czech Republic |
118 |
0.8 |
27 |
30 |
Czech Republic |
122 |
0.9 |
29 |
30 |
Denmark |
99 |
0.7 |
16 |
|
Total of above e |
11 497 |
82.7 |
- |
|
Total of above e |
11 726 |
82.5 |
- |
|
World e |
13 900 |
100.0 |
15 |
|
World e |
14 200 |
100.0 |
14 |
a. The 2007 annual change is affected by a
reduction in trade associated with fraudulent VAT declaration. For further
information, refer to the special notes of the monthly
UK Trade First Release.
b. Secretariat estimates.
c. Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
d. Imports are valued f.o.b.
e. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Appendix Table 4
Merchandise trade: leading exporters and importers, 2007
Excluding intra-EU (27) trade — $bn and %
Rank |
Exporters |
Value |
Share |
Annual % change |
Rank |
Importers |
Value |
Share |
Annual % change |
1 |
Extra-EU (27) exports |
1 695 |
16.5 |
16 |
1 |
United States |
2 017 |
19.0 |
5 |
2 |
China |
1 218 |
11.8 |
26 |
2 |
Extra-EU (27) imports |
1 949 |
18.4 |
15 |
3 |
United States |
1 163 |
11.3 |
12 |
3 |
China |
956 |
9.0 |
21 |
4 |
Japan |
713 |
6.9 |
10 |
4 |
Japan |
621 |
5.9 |
7 |
5 |
Canada |
418 |
4.1 |
8 |
5 |
Canada |
390 |
3.7 |
9 |
6 |
Korea, Republic of |
372 |
3.6 |
14 |
6 |
Hong Kong, China |
371 |
3.5 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
— retained imports a |
96 |
0.9 |
... |
7 |
Russia |
355 |
3.5 |
17 |
7 |
Korea, Republic of |
357 |
3.4 |
15 |
8 |
Hong Kong, China |
350 |
3.4 |
8 |
8 |
Mexico |
297 |
2.8 |
11 |
|
— domestic exports a |
19 |
0.2 |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
|
— re-exports a |
331 |
3.2 |
... |
|
|
|
|
|
9 |
Singapore |
299 |
2.9 |
10 |
9 |
Singapore |
263 |
2.5 |
10 |
|
domestic exports |
156 |
1.5 |
9 |
|
— retained imports b |
120 |
1.1 |
9 |
|
re-exports |
143 |
1.4 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
Mexico |
272 |
2.6 |
9 |
10 |
Russian Federation c |
223 |
2.1 |
35 |
11 |
Taipei, Chinese |
246 |
2.4 |
10 |
11 |
Taipei, Chinese |
220 |
2.1 |
8 |
12 |
Saudi Arabia a |
229 |
2.2 |
8 |
12 |
India |
217 |
2.0 |
24 |
13 |
Malaysia |
176 |
1.7 |
10 |
13 |
Turkey |
170 |
1.6 |
22 |
14 |
Switzerland |
172 |
1.7 |
16 |
14 |
Australia |
165 |
1.6 |
19 |
15 |
Brazil |
161 |
1.6 |
17 |
15 |
Switzerland |
161 |
1.5 |
14 |
16 |
United Arab Emirates a |
154 |
1.5 |
8 |
16 |
Malaysia |
147 |
1.4 |
12 |
17 |
Thailand |
152 |
1.5 |
17 |
17 |
Thailand |
141 |
1.3 |
8 |
18 |
India |
145 |
1.4 |
20 |
18 |
Brazil |
127 |
1.2 |
32 |
19 |
Australia |
141 |
1.4 |
14 |
19 |
United Arab Emirates a |
121 |
1.1 |
24 |
20 |
Norway |
139 |
1.4 |
14 |
20 |
Saudi Arabia a |
94 |
0.9 |
35 |
21 |
Indonesia |
118 |
1.1 |
14 |
21 |
Indonesia |
92 |
0.9 |
14 |
22 |
Turkey |
107 |
1.0 |
25 |
22 |
South Africa a |
91 |
0.9 |
18 |
23 |
Iran , Islamic Rep. of a |
83 |
0.8 |
8 |
23 |
Norway |
80 |
0.8 |
25 |
24 |
South Africa |
70 |
0.7 |
20 |
24 |
Viet Nam |
61 |
0.6 |
36 |
25 |
Bolivarian Rep. of Venezuela |
69 |
0.7 |
6 |
25 |
Ukraine a |
60 |
0.6 |
34 |
26 |
Chile |
68 |
0.7 |
18 |
26 |
Israel a |
59 |
0.6 |
17 |
27 |
Nigeria a |
67 |
0.6 |
13 |
27 |
Philippines a |
57 |
0.5 |
6 |
28 |
Kuwait a |
63 |
0.6 |
14 |
28 |
Bolivarian Rep. of Venezuela |
49 |
0.5 |
45 |
29 |
Algeria |
60 |
0.6 |
9 |
29 |
Chile |
46 |
0.4 |
20 |
30 |
Argentina |
56 |
0.5 |
20 |
30 |
Iran , Islamic Rep. of a |
45 |
0.4 |
10 |
|
Total of above d |
9 331 |
90.8 |
- |
|
Total of above d |
9 646 |
91.1 |
- |
|
World d |
10 278 |
100.0 |
15 |
|
World d |
10 591 |
100.0 |
14 |
a. Secretariat estimates.
b. Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
c. Imports are valued f.o.b.
d. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Appendix Table 5
Commercial services: leading exporters and importers, 2007
$bn and %
Rank |
Exporters |
Value |
Share |
Annual % change |
Rank |
Importers |
Value |
Share |
Annual % change |
1 |
United States |
454 |
13.9 |
14 |
1 |
United States |
336 |
11.0 |
9 |
2 |
United Kingdom |
263 |
8.1 |
17 |
2 |
Germany |
245 |
8.0 |
15 |
3 |
Germany |
197 |
6.1 |
18 |
3 |
United Kingdom |
193 |
6.3 |
13 |
4 |
Japan |
136 |
4.2 |
11 |
4 |
Japan |
157 |
5.1 |
9 |
5 |
France |
130 |
4.0 |
11 |
5 |
China |
129 |
4.2 |
... |
6 |
Spain |
127 |
3.9 |
21 |
6 |
France |
120 |
3.9 |
12 |
7 |
China |
127 |
3.9 |
... |
7 |
Italy |
117 |
3.8 |
19 |
8 |
Italy |
109 |
3.3 |
12 |
8 |
Spain |
97 |
3.2 |
24 |
9 |
Netherlands |
91 |
2.8 |
13 |
9 |
Ireland |
93 |
3.0 |
18 |
10 |
Ireland |
87 |
2.7 |
27 |
10 |
Netherlands |
89 |
2.9 |
13 |
11 |
India |
86 |
2.7 |
15 |
11 |
Korea, Republic of |
85 |
2.8 |
21 |
12 |
Hong Kong, China |
82 |
2.5 |
13 |
12 |
Canada |
80 |
2.6 |
11 |
13 |
Belgium |
73 |
2.2 |
— |
13 |
India |
78 |
2.6 |
24 |
14 |
Singapore |
66 |
2.0 |
13 |
14 |
Singapore |
70 |
2.3 |
14 |
15 |
Korea, Republic of |
64 |
2.0 |
28 |
15 |
Belgium |
66 |
2.2 |
— |
16 |
Sweden |
63 |
1.9 |
26 |
16 |
Russia |
57 |
1.9 |
30 |
17 |
Denmark |
62 |
1.9 |
17 |
17 |
Denmark |
56 |
1.8 |
21 |
18 |
Canada |
61 |
1.9 |
6 |
18 |
Sweden |
48 |
1.6 |
21 |
19 |
Switzerland |
61 |
1.9 |
20 |
19 |
Hong Kong, China |
40 |
1.3 |
9 |
20 |
Luxembourg |
60 |
1.8 |
18 |
20 |
Australia |
38 |
1.2 |
21 |
21 |
Austria |
54 |
1.7 |
18 |
21 |
Thailand |
38 |
1.2 |
18 |
22 |
Greece |
43 |
1.3 |
21 |
22 |
Austria |
37 |
1.2 |
12 |
23 |
Australia |
40 |
1.2 |
22 |
23 |
Norway |
37 |
1.2 |
19 |
24 |
Norway |
39 |
1.2 |
18 |
24 |
Luxembourg |
36 |
1.2 |
18 |
25 |
Russia |
38 |
1.2 |
25 |
25 |
Taipei, Chinese |
35 |
1.2 |
8 |
26 |
Taipei, Chinese |
30 |
0.9 |
5 |
26 |
Brazil |
34 |
1.1 |
24 |
27 |
Thailand |
28 |
0.9 |
17 |
27 |
Switzerland |
33 |
1.1 |
14 |
28 |
Poland |
28 |
0.9 |
36 |
28 |
Indonesia a |
32 |
1.0 |
... |
29 |
Malaysia |
28 |
0.9 |
29 |
29 |
United Arab Emirates a |
28 |
0.9 |
... |
30 |
Turkey |
27 |
0.8 |
12 |
30 |
Malaysia |
27 |
0.9 |
15 |
|
Total of above |
2 755 |
84.6 |
– |
|
Total of above |
2 530 |
82.7 |
– |
|
World |
3 260 |
100.0 |
18 |
|
World |
3 060 |
100.0 |
16 |
Note: While provisional full year data were available in early
March for 33 countries accounting for more than 60% of world commercial
services trade, estimates for most other countries are based on data for
the first three quarters (the first six months in the case of China).
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Footnotes
1. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine,
Uzbekistan. back to text
2. Measured with GDP at constant prices and market
exchange rates. Measured with GDP at purchasing power parities (PPP) the
contribution of the developing regions to global output exceeded one half. back to text
3. UNCTAD, UNCTAD Investment Brief, No.1, 2008. back to text
4. The Institute for International Finance observed a
strong increase in net private capital flows to emerging markets, driven
largely by portfolio flows. Official net flows to emerging markets were
negligible in 2007 following a net outflow in 2006. (Institute for
International Finance, Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies, 6 March
2008). back to text
5. The ratio of the US current account deficit to US GDP
is estimated to have decreased from its peak of 6.2% in 2006 to 5.5% in 2007. back to text
6. JP Morgan, Real broad effective exchange rate
indices. Direct communication to the WTO Secretariat. Estimates for current
account balances are taken from IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2008. back to text
7. All output projections for 2008 are based on IMF,
World Economic Outlook, April 2008.The OECD (OECD Economic Outlook,
December 2007) and the United Nations (World Economic Situation and
Prospects 2008, January 2008) retained for their basic reference
scenario global GDP growth forecasts in the order of 3% to 3.5% for
2008. However, the interim assessments of the global economic situation
by the OECD and the IMF in March and April 2008 contain a more
pessimistic outlook for economic growth in developed countries, implying
a downward adjustment of global economic prospects.
back to text
8. FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No.2 April, 2008. back to text
9. The WTO Secretariat’s forecast in April 2007 for
world trade (6%) and OECD import growth of goods and services (4.5%) in 2007
were very close to the current provisional estimates for the actual outcome. back to text
10. It seems that the accuracy of trade between countries
within Europe, as reported by some countries, has been severely affected by
irregular trade transactions related to value-added tax (VAT) fraud. In 2007,
UK merchandise exports and imports contracted sharply although the overall
growth in the economy remained unchanged between 2006 and 2007. The
recent trade decline is most likely due more to a cut in trade flows related to
VAT fraud than to changes in demand or regular business transactions. back to text
11. Merchandise trade values for 2007 were estimated on
the basis of monthly customs data while commercial services data are derived
from balance of payments statistics. The latter are typically available later
than merchandise trade data, contributing to greater uncertainty in the
estimates for services than for merchandise trade in 2007. back to text
12. Among leading traders, dollar export prices of
manufactured goods increased at highly different rates in 2007. German prices
rose by 10.2%. US prices rose by 3.2%, while Japan’s edged up marginally and
the Republic of Korea’s decreased slightly. China’s export unit value index for
manufactured goods rose by nearly 5% in 2007. back to text
13. In euro terms Europe’s merchandise exports slowed
from 13% growth in 2006 to 6% in 2007. The figures for imports were 15% in
2006, down to 5.5% in 2007. back to text
14. The overall increase in Europe’s trade in 2007
might be understated due to difficulties in accurately recording trade flows
within the EU. back to text
15. China’s customs trade data include shipments which
temporarily leave China and are re-imported afterwards. Recorded as China’s
“imports from China” they amounted to $86 billion or 9% of total imports
(corresponding to 7% of exports). back to text
16. Commercial services data are derived from balance
of payments statistics which do not include sales of majority-owned foreign
affiliates abroad (commercial presence). Balance of payments data are reported
with a greater delay than customs merchandise trade data which implies that the
preliminary information on commercial services given in this report is less
certain than for merchandise trade. back to text
17. According to preliminary estimates the Middle East
is the only region in which services trade expanded less rapidly in 2007 than a
year earlier. back to text
18. Measured in euro terms Europe’s commercial services
exports and imports rose by 8% and 7% respectively in 2007. back to text
19. In the first half of 2007 China’s commercial
services exports reportedly increased by 39% while imports rose by one quarter. back to text
> Download
this press release (pdf format, 19 pages,
127KB)
> Guide to
downloading files.
Tables and charts:
Chart 1: Real GDP and
trade growth of OECD countries, 2006-07
Chart 2: Growth in the
volume of world merchandise trade and GDP, 1997-2007
Table 1: GDP and
merchandise trade by region, 2005-07
Chart 3: Real merchandise
trade growth by region, 2007
Chart 4: Export prices of
selected primary products, 2005-2007
Chart 5: Dollar exchange
rates of selected major currencies, 2001-07
Table 2: World exports of
merchandise and commercial services, 2000–07
Table 3: World exports of
commercial services trade by major category, 2000-07
Appendix Table 1:
Merchandise trade, world,
by region and selected country, 2007
Appendix Table 2:
Commercial services,
world exports by region and selected country, 2007
Appendix Table 3:
Merchandise trade:
leading exporters and importers, 2007
Appendix Table 4:
Merchandise trade:
leading exporters and importers, 2007
Appendix Table 5:
Commercial services:
leading exporters and importers, 2007
> Problems viewing this page?
Please contact [email protected] giving details of the operating system and web browser you are using.